Huntsman 2016?

Jon Huntsman oficially entered the race for President yesterday. That leaves Palin, Perry, and Giuliani as the only remaining unknowns (and Giuliani, a one-time 2008 front-runner who spent $50 Million to win only one delegate is not much of a factor).

Palin cannot win the general election, but she could electrify the Republican base and win the primary (and cause all of Obama-land to rest easy). Perry could change tracks and get in the race, but I don't think that the country wants another goofy Texas Governor (and George W. Bush's #2--just like Cheney was!).

Huntsman, however, is often thought of as someone who could be trouble for the President next November. But can he win the nomination? With the important caveat that Democrats and Republicans seem to do an awful job at understanding the other party's primary selection process, I do not think so.

I am not sure if there is a sufficient constituency in the Republican Party for a moderate, Mormon, former Governor from a wealthy family with uncomfortably close policy or political ties to the Obama Administration. But if there is, I think Mitt Romney has already filled that space in 2012.

While other possible candidates, real or imagined, could fill holes in the Republicna Primary field (Palin and the Tea Bag Party; Christie and the tough talking moderates; Huckabee and the Evangelicals; Daniels and the budget-hawks), there is no gap for Huntsman to fill. Unless Romney flames out, there is no space for Huntsman to get traction (and while Romney is flawed for a lot of reasons, political implosion seems unlikely from such an already programmed candidate). The best he can do is undermine Romney's front-runner status and open up the field to someone else.

And that might actually be Jon Huntsman's best strategy for becoming President. The tendency in the Republican Party is to nominate the person who have tried it before (McCain, Dole, Bush41, Reagan, Nixon, and Goldwater all sought the office unsuccessfully before later getting the nomination). Huntsman could be planning a "dry-run" with hopes of emerging as the front-runner in four years. And, if Obama blows out a hard-right Tea Partier in 2012 (let's say Sarah Palin), he could emerge as the un-Palin in 2016 to a party now both hungry for a win and humbled by their loss.