The Next 10 Days of the Republican Primary

Newt Gingrich has won the Republican Primary in South Carolina. A week ago, it looked like Mitt Romney was likely to go three for the first three primaries, consolidate the field, and effectively wrap up the GOP nomination. Today, he has now lost two out of three of the early primaries and remains unable to break through the mid-30’s in the polls.

Romney, however, remains the front-runner to win the Republican nomination; he has more money, better organization, and the strong support of the Republican Party establishment. But the race has become very interesting, and here are four things to watch out for over the next 10 days?

The Margin of Victory
Late polls suggested that Newt’s margin of victory was breaking into double-digits. That could be rough for Mitt. Certainly, the bigger the margin is, the bigger the headache for Romney.

Rick Santorum
Santorum has pledged to stay in at least through Florida, and having won the Iowa caucuses, he has earned that right. But Rick Perry had pledged to stay in through South Carolina, and he dropped out and endorsed Gingrich. Moreover, Santorum has been running his campaign on a tight budget, and his method of winning Iowa was to visit all 99 counties over the course of nearly a year. But he still fell to fourth in the even-smaller New Hampshire, and Florida is larger than the first three states combined. So Santorum needs to break through in a big way to keep afloat in Florida. And, if the anti-Mitt forces are trying to coalesce around a single candidate, can Santorum get oxygen in the race. Interestingly, if Santorum were to drop out, the conventional wisdom suggests that his voters would go to Newt—but it is not entirely clear that Santorum would through his endorsement to Gingrich. Perry clearly harbored a degree of personal disdain for Romney, but Santorum is a smart politician who may well get in line.

Marco Rubio
The Tea Bag Party-backed Cuban-American Senator is at play in the Florida Primary. Rubio surprised the establishment by knocking off the popular Florida Governor Charlie Crist in the 2010 Republican Senate Primary, and then stomped his way to the Senate in a three-way race. But since heading to DC, Rubio has kept his head down and quietly tried to work. The 40-year Senator has every reason to stay out of the fray—a young, popular, Hispanic Republican, he has frequently been mentioned as a possible 2012 running mate, or at some point even running for President himself. But Rubio will be emblematic of the two opposing forces that will be at play over the next ten days—the Tea Bag Party wing, trying to push the Republican Party harder to the right, and the DC establishment wing of the Republican Party who wants to end this quick and quietly.

Barack Obama
The President of the United States of America will take center stage of the national debate on Tuesday night, delivering the State of the Union Address. And it will be a big one. Republicans have been bashing him with everything from lies, damn lies, and craziness. But this address will set out the President’s election-year priorities and define how voters look at him. The best communicator in American politics will have a chance to make his case in the most favorable circumstances he has had in years. Three years ago, President Obama took office with the country on the brink of a second great depression, deeply involved in two wars, and teetering on the edge. Today, the employment picture is at its best in more than four years with signs of continuing improvement, the auto industry has been not only saved but re-ignited, America has finally ended its involvement in Iraq, has eliminated Osama bin Laden, and the President can tout a host of legislative and executive achievements from universal health care, consumer financial protection, investments in new energy. And he gets to do it while transposing himself against a Republican-controlled Congress whose approval ratings are lower than Communism.

Mitt Romney remains the favorite to win the Florida Primary, and even if he loses, remains the front-runner to win the nomination. But if Newt can add Florida to his win tonight, he will go a long way to evening those odds.