Seriously, why not?
With the Iowa caucuses tomorrow, Ron Paul has become somewhere between the 5th and 11th front-runner or quasi-front-runner in Iowa.* Each of his predecessors in that position, whether the hoped-for-but-never-did candidates of Mitch Daniels, Haley Barbour, and Chris Christie who it seemed would have at least had a moment in the sun; the shadow candidacies of Sarah Palin and Donald Trump, who polls suggest were actually leading or close-to leading at some point before declaring they would not run (though neither have actually ruled it out); or the real candidates (if by “real” you mean candidates who have participated in the Republican debates) of Bachman, Perry, Cain, and Gingrich), were all considered by the conventional wisdom as people who could ultimately win the Republican nomination. Indeed, Rick Perry was given a prime slot on the Today Show this morning, and yet if his current fifth place polling in Iowa holds up tomorrow, convention would hold that he would have a press conference in Austin on Wednesday announcing the suspension of his campaign. Similarly, Michele Bachman got prime interviews on all the morning shows just before Christmas, and she is now running barely ahead of Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, and me in Iowa.
And yet, when asked if Ron Paul could win the nomination, the answer comes back with an unequivocal “no.” Why? I frankly do not see why Paul is any less likely to win the nomination than any other Republican who might outpoll Mitt Romney tomorrow.
To be sure, the Republican primary race is basically in the same position that it was a year ago. Mitt Romney remains the establishment favorite. Given the Republicans post-war tendency to choose their nominee by primogeniture, as the next in line, Mitt is the person to beat. And while he would certainly lose if the party’s right-wing could coalesce around a decent candidate, they are unlikely to do so (and this seems more and more true a year later). This basic factor (combined with the amazing failure opponents to jump on his obvious problems) means that a flawed Mitt is likely to beat out a field of much more deeply flawed candidates.
But throughout the campaign, each of these contenders has been given their due by the national media and the conventional wisdom. Until Ron Paul. Several answers have been proffered, but none are really satisfying.
Some argue that Ron Paul is “crazy.” Perhaps. Crazier than Michelle Bachmann? After her response to the State of the Union, appearance on the cover of Newsweek, and a string of SNL appearances by Kristen Wiig that rival Tina Fey’s Sarah Palin send-ups, it is hard to imagine that she is viewed more favorably than Ron Paul. Or Newt Gingrich, who at the very least has far more self-important chutzpah. And even if you think Ron Paul is crazy, you cannot argue that it does not play—his son Rand Paul ran on the same basic platform, upsetting the Republican establishment to get the GOP Senate nomination (and then the seat) in Kentucky a year ago.
Some say that he does not have the organizational strength to parlay a win in Iowa. Perhaps this is true. But conventional wisdom has suggested only that Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich can compete with Romney in terms of organizational strength. But neither Perry nor Gingrich were able to put enough organization together to appear on the Virginia ballot, despite both being southerners, and Gingrich having permanently moved to Virginia after leaving Congress. But Ron Paul will be the only alternative to Mitt Romney on the Virginia Primary ballot. And Paul has demonstrated the ability to raise a lot of money (often online) from his cadre of followers.
On the issues, Paul seems vulnerable, particularly with his opposition to Republican orthodoxy on Iraq, Iran, and other Republican tendency to take on a, shall we say, “muscular” foreign policy attitude. But other Republicans suffer similar issue problems. Mitt Romney was effectively pro-choice when he was elected Governor nine years ago, something that is anathema to the Republican platform. Rick Perry has openly opposed deporting illegal immigrants who came to the US as children, a position which, in one of his non-gaffes, he called “heartless.” And Newt Gingrich basically followed that line. If each of these candidates can be considered serious, in spite of their positions that contradict the party line, why not Ron Paul. Indeed, Paul has found a way to find common ground with the evangelical right.
And of course, whether it is experience, organization, fundraising, sanity, issues, or any other criteria, Paul’s campaign is, was, and always has been more serious than Herman Cain’s, and yet during his brief shining moment, Cain was viewed as a real threat not just in Iowa, but to win the nomination.
Ultimately, I think that the national media and the beltway establishment has spent so much time over the last five years (and, in some ways much longer) investing in the idea that Paul cannot seriously be the Republican nominee that they are unwilling to be swayed from the position. Evidence, comparisons, and actual voters be damned—the conventional wisdom holds in spite of objective analysis. This reminds me of the conventional wisdom’s reaction to Barry Goldwater in 1964—surely he could not be nominated, and if so, he would have to moderate his views. And after his convention speech, after he made clear he would not back down an inch from his strident conservative politics, one reporter expressed the shock of the conventional media: “My God, he's going to run as Barry Goldwater.”
It is true that the most likely scenario is that Mitt Romney will emerge as the Republican nominee. Indeed, Paul’s surge seems to be fading in favor of a late Rick Santorum surge,* and today’s polls might suggest that a likely Ron Paul win just a few days ago might be a third-place finish tomorrow. But if Ron Paul is celebrating a victory after tomorrow’s Iowa Caucuses, don’t count out the possibility that he might be celebrating next summer in Tampa, too.
(*Note—Rick Santorum now seems to be riding yet another surge, giving every Republican that has competed in Iowa their moment. But while not as obviously as Paul, he has also been given short-shrift by the CW about his chances for winning the nomination.)
0 comments:
Post a Comment